Greetings.
I have a felicitous essay with which you can begin your new year.
I
have just finished the manuscript of a seventh book that I hope to publish next
year (2026), if I find a publisher this year (2025). This is in addition to my
sixth book, Forgotten Landscapes, which is scheduled for release July
2025. But right now I want to tell you a little about the seventh book, Every
Plant Has a Story.
There
are lots of books about botany for the general reader. But almost all of them
are about why humans should appreciate plants, e.g., they are sources of food,
spices, hallucinogens, etc. That is, plants as slaves of humans. But my book is
about the stories the plants tell about themselves, as discovered by scientific
research. I will not attempt to summarize it here, but will probably do so a
bit at a time in the essays I will post in the coming year.
Every
plant has a different story of success in the ruthless Darwinian world
of competition. One example is that some plants grow as long-lived trees, while
others are short-lived weeds. The long-lived trees (like oak trees) invest a
lot of time and energy in building up for the future. They are tremendously
successful, but it takes centuries for them to earn back the costs that it took
them to build themselves. They epitomize long-term investment. Weeds, on the
other hand, do not have a long term. They grow like crazy for, in most cases, a
single year, then pour all their resources into seed production. There are all
stages in between, such as short-lived trees (like cottonwoods).
Above: sequoia trees invest for long-term success, over
millennia; below, weeds such as velvetleaf invest for success only one year
into the future, then they die.
Weeds
specialize on temporary habitats, such as an area disturbed by fire, flood, or
human activity. Trees specialize on habitats that remain stable for many
decades, even centuries. Since the Earth contains both kinds of habitats,
stable and temporary, the weed approach to investing and the tree approach are
both successful, in different places.
The
analogy with the human economy is inescapable. You can either invest for the
long term, building up savings and assets, preparing for the future. You can
manage your life like a tree. Or you can spend quickly and go into debt, as if
you have no future. You can be a weed. It is the people who live like trees who
make the world a better place, who stabilize it. But there are plenty of people
who live like weeds also.
Humans
are, however, changing the global climate. Not just heating it up, through the
greenhouse effect, but creating a climate that is wildly catastrophic—fires, hurricanes,
floods, and all the rest. The entire world now has or will soon have an
unstable climate, everywhere. Plants that make long-term investments, such as
trees, may not live long enough to be successful. Only weeds, which often live
just a year, can survive in a world where the climate changes rapidly. No
longer will tree investments and weed investments both be successful at different
times and places. Now only the weeds will succeed. I summarize this situation in
the last chapter of my book: Trees are out, weeds are in.
Trees
are out, weeds are in. This means that if you expect to see old forests with
big trees, you’d better see them right away. And then prepare to live in a
world in which there are no plants except those that grow and die rapidly.
Someday, the giant sequoia forests of California, where huge trees live for
millennia, will be regarded as part of a mythological past.
The
analogy with human investments is again inescapable. Long-term investments, in
which a corporation plans to be a stable force for good over many decades, are
on their way out. Short-term investments, to make a killing rather than a
living, will soon dominate the economy of the world. Only the long term allows
a corporation to invest in reputation: we are a company you can trust for life,
we want you to like us. Instead, corporations will all be rewarded for being
rapacious, treating their customers like garbage, and they don’t care who knows
it. Yes, we dump our wastes into the common space in which we all live; yes, we
deny your insurance claims; no, you cannot expect us to actually honor our
contracts. In a truly free economy,
consumers can choose to stay away from dishonest corporations. But in many
cases, when a corporation treats its customers like garbage, and it starts to
collapse, the government will come in and rescue it, or else it will merge with
another corporation. Corporations lose their recognizable identities, so you
cannot choose to stay away from them. The future of the human world, as of the
natural world, will be wildly swerving among disasters, in which you cannot responsibly
plan ahead.
I
wrote the rest of this essay in my science blog. Now, for something of direct
interest to readers of the religion blog. The old-time religion is dying also.
Time was when Christianity meant to live a life of responsibility to God and
service to humankind. To make the world better. To live like trees. But that is
no longer what conservative Christianity, in its unbridled worship of Donald
Trump, is. In the new-time religion, conservative Christianity is where
charismatic leaders get their hypnotized followers to give them money, with
which they pursue sinful lifestyles, and tell everybody to worship Trump
instead of Jesus. They are the weeds of the religious world, whose only
interest is quick profit. They have always been with us; but now they have
dominated the religious world.
I
have been reading Naomi Klein’s 2014 This Changes Everything. She makes
it abundantly clear that our world economy cannot possibly avoid
climate-related collapse. Any company, or country, that invests in the future
rather than in immediate profitability is swept aside. Countries, companies,
and individuals who choose sustainability are usually beaten down. Unless solar
energy is, without subsidies, cheaper than government-subsidized fossil fuel
energy, it will be driven into extinction. The time is coming, soon, when
sustainability will be essentially illegal. By choosing to spend less money, I
am making myself an enemy of the consumerist economy. I am basing this view on
Klein’s 2014 numbers. It is much worse today.
I
was expecting that my seventh book would be a cheerful celebration of the
diversity of plant adaptations even to the most challenging environments. I did
not plan for it to be an activist book. The time is past when I delude myself
into thinking that any book I could possibly write would change the views of
any readers who did not already agree with me. But, despite my plans, my
seventh book has become an activist book, a voice of a prophet in the
wilderness, from what the short-horizon leaders of the world economy think of
as the extreme left.
This
represents an almost complete departure from everything I wrote in previous
years. Before, I was hoping to help change the world. Now, I just want those of
you who care about the long-term well-being of humankind to feel a little
better about the way you are living.
Trees
are out; weeds are in. Happy New Year.